Lorcana Swiss Tournament Simulator

Lorcana Tiebreaker System (Ravensburger PlayHub)

When players are tied on match points, standings are determined by the following tiebreakers in order:

1. Match Points — 3 points per match win, 1 per draw, 0 per loss. This is the primary ranking metric.
2. Opponent Match-Win % (OMW%) — The average match-win percentage of all your opponents. Measures strength of schedule: beating strong opponents lifts your OMW%. Each opponent's MWP is calculated as their match points earned ÷ maximum possible match points. Floored at 33% to limit the impact of weak opponents. Byes are excluded from this calculation.
3. Game Win % (GW%) — Your personal game-level win rate: game points earned ÷ maximum possible game points (each game win = 3 pts, draw = 1 pt, loss = 0 pts). Rewards dominant match wins (e.g., 2-0 vs 2-1). Floored at 33%.
4. Opponent Game Win % (OGW%) — The average game-win percentage of all your opponents. Acts as a deeper strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. Calculated the same way as GW% but averaged across all opponents.

Simulation Assumptions & Under-the-Hood Logic

1. Equal Skill — All players are assumed to be equally skilled. Every match is a 50/50 coin flip (excluding draws). This isolates the mathematical structure of the tournament from player skill variance.
2. Game-Level Results — When a player wins a match, the game score is randomly assigned as either 2-0 or 2-1 (50/50). For drawn matches, the game score is recorded as 1-1 with a drawn third game. These feed into the GW% and OGW% tiebreaker calculations.
3. Swiss Pairing — Players are grouped into point brackets and paired within each bracket. Within a bracket, players are shuffled randomly and paired while avoiding rematches. If a bracket has an odd number of players, the unpaired player "floats down" to the next bracket. If no non-rematch pairing is available, rematches are allowed as a last resort.
4. Intentional Draws — When enabled, intentional draws only occur in the final round and only when both players are mathematically guaranteed to make top cut. The guarantee check counts, in the worst case, how many other players could possibly finish with more points (every other player wins). If that worst-case count is less than the top cut size for both players, they draw. A 6-2 player will never intentionally draw because a draw does not guarantee a top cut spot.
5. Drops — When enabled, players who reach the loss threshold are removed from the tournament before the next round begins. Dropped players retain their final record and tiebreakers but do not participate in further rounds.
6. Pairing Byes — When an odd number of active players remain in a round, the lowest-ranked unpaired player receives a bye (3 match points, 2-0 game score). Awarded byes (configured by the user) always go to player 1 in the specified rounds.
7. ID Safety Guide — This table uses empirical data from the simulation, not projections. For each record archetype (X-0, X-1, etc.) after each round, it tracks what players with that record actually did in the next round (won, lost, or drew) and whether they ultimately finished in the top cut. The percentages shown are real observed outcomes across all simulations.
8. Tiebreaker Floors — All tiebreaker percentages (OMW%, GW%, OGW%) use a floor of 33.33% (1/3), matching the official Lorcana tournament rules. This prevents a single weak opponent from disproportionately dragging down tiebreaker values.
9. Intentional Draws (Penultimate Round) — X-0 players (and others who are mathematically guaranteed) may also draw in the second-to-last round if drawing twice still guarantees a cut spot. Both players must independently be guaranteed; a safe player cannot force an unsafe opponent to draw.
10. On-The-Play (OTP) Advantage — When enabled, the first player in each match wins at the configured rate (default 55%) instead of 50/50. Who goes first is randomly determined each match (coin flip). The luck distribution shows how being on the play more or less often affects outcomes.
11. Day 2 Elimination — When a Day 2 target is set, players who do not meet the target record after the implied Day 1 rounds are dropped from subsequent rounds, simulating a real multi-day event.